We asked futurist John Mahaffie to take a stab at what car washing might look like in 2025. Here’s just one man’s view:
Imagine it’s 2025. Three old friends sit down together for coffee. By a coincidence, all three just had their cars cleaned.
Sierra is smiling when they sit down.
“My ShareCar showed up fresh from the car wash,” Sierra said. “I love it when that happens.”
Sierra doesn’t own a car. When she can’t walk or bike, she just taps on her mobile, and waits while one cruises over to pick her up.
“Yup, all squeaky clean from servicing,” she said. “I can track all that on the app.”
“Do they decon it?” Wil said.
“They do a UV treatment and allergen sweep,” Sierra said. “I think it’s all automated.”
“That’s awesome,” Wil said, and the women laugh at him.
Wil has a brand-new 2025 Spark, the 100 percent renewable electric self-drive.
“Mine’s all clean too,” Wil said. “And zero water!”
“Your car doesn’t get dirty?” Janae asked.
“It can’t get dirty,” Wil said. “Smart paint.”
“That’s outside. Do I want to look inside?” Sierra said.
Wil laughs. He’s on the road all the time, or taking his son to games and practices. With a self-drive, he’s even more likely to eat in it.
“I should just get a VacBot,” he said. “Let it run around inside there all the time.”
“For sure!” Sierra said.
Janae has a vintage Audi tt, a 2014, retrofit to run on hydrogen. She worked at the telecenter that morning. But a mobile service located her car there and did a full cleaning and tank charge while she worked.
“No robots will touch my Audi.” Janae said. “All hand work.”
“How do you know?” Wil said.
Janae’s touches the corner of her eyepiece. But she doesn’t tell the others that she sometimes watches the remote video as her car gets its custom wash and detail.
“I specify, it’s all menu-driven.”
What should we think when we learn that the latest Nissan concept car wears super hydrophobic paint that rejects dirt? What’s this crazy future all about? What will it mean for the professional car wash?
The Spring 2014 edition of CAR WASH Magazine offered a menu of stories on what’s changing: self-driving cars, app-driven business, mobile payment and biometrics. We have to wonder what it all means to the future of the professional car wash.
The best way to reckon with so many ideas about change is not to stand in today and wonder. We need to build clearer visions of tomorrow. So we look in on the lives in 2025, of Sierra, Janae and Wil.
The three friends are Millennials (aka Generation Y, born 1980 to 2000). They are now into their prime earning and lifestyle-building years. In 2025 some will commute and some will telecommute, but they will be highly mobile. They will be raising children or thinking about it; worrying how to get them to school and practice and play dates. They will still cherish cosmopolitan, active lifestyles, and they will still struggle with affording everything.
Sierra, Janae and Wil will need mobility just as much as their elders. But owning cars interests some of them less. More will drive share cars, use public transit, walk or bicycle to get around.
Millennials will by habit hire out work that their parents and grandparents might have done themselves. But they will also be cash-strapped. They will live expensive lives and worry about their retirement savings.
Nearly everyone will lead digital lives in 2025. Sierra’s days are virtual. She has no fixed workplace. She moves about to visit customers and friends. Apps guide her day and connect her to the resources and people she depends on.
In 2025, even our cars will lead digital lives. The smart car of 2025 will decide for itself what service it needs.
Sometimes our views of the future make it look pristine. But the future will be just as dirty as today, and our expectations for cleanliness will rise. We can expect the cleanliness front to extend from dirt to invisible germs. In 2025, we will be more aware of what is in our environment that can harm us. Hand-held sensors will be able to detect pathogens, and we will know what those pathogens can do to us.
Technology will give us more cleanness. Imagine a way to kill germs inside your car. Imagine a service that destroys harmful agents in your environment. The 2025 consumer will want those things.
In 2025, you might just want your car to call for a cleaning as needed, without you having the think about it. If it’s a neighborhood share car, smart systems can sort out how to schedule service amidst all the demand. A car can arrange a substitute while it is unavailable.
A self-driving car could then just take itself to the car wash, when needed. And it could go in the middle of the night, when you don’t need the car. Maybe the car wash will have a better deal at 3 a.m. Its robotic workers won’t mind cleaning cars on the overnight shift.
In fact, automation could give us the “lights out” car wash, one with no human workers, or none doing the physical work of car care. We may see highly or 100 percent automated operations, with no handwork at all. Some robots will be stationary multi-armed cleaning machines. Some could be swarms of miniature mobile robots, cleaning cars inside and out.
There’s plenty of room in our future for premium car care services. But we can expect a split. We will see the boutique end of vehicle care and the value end.
An automated, robotic car wash can be inexpensive to use, and use regularly. But premium hand washing and detailing will be part of the 2025 marketplace. The luxury niche customer will want quality work and will want to know who is caring for their vehicle and how.
Janae has a service contract to maintain her car. Her service locates the car and services it according to her customer profile and preferences. In-vehicle sensors would allow that service to be on-demand. That means they will use fewer resources and save her money, not cleaning when it’s not needed.
The 2025 car wash can make money on add-on services too. Some people’s vehicles will need their batteries charged or hydrogen tanks filled. The future car wash could offer clean and charge, even on a subscription basis.
We may have fewer service stations in 2025, even if we have more vehicles. The rise of electric and other alternative fuel vehicles could shrink the number and the frequency of visits to gas stations. That could be bad news for service station car washes. But it offers a car wash establishment add-on opportunities in added vehicle services such as battery charging.
Self-cleaning paint and glass move the focus inside the vehicle. The new Nissan concept is likely just the first wave of technology for self-cleaning cars. The sciences of nanotechnology and biomimcry will revolutionize the world of materials, bringing new capabilities. But we might find reassurance that inside those vehicles, as we saw with Wil, there will still be plush surfaces, carpets and seats to clean.
Finally, by 2025 we will have worked to lower the environmental impact of cleaning cars. Now, washing a car at responsible washes takes fewer than 40 gallons of water. And we already recognize water as a precious resource. It will be too valuable, especially in areas of drought and limited resources, for use in washing cars. Smart businesses can capitalize on this and include green practices in their branding as they do with the WaterSavers program. But the green payoff will fade as it becomes a must-do practice, instead of a differentiator.
No, we cannot. But the professional car wash business has its future in its hands. Success means discovering and embracing changes in society, and finding new ways to thrive. That may mean changing how you think about car washes, whom you hire and whom you partner with.
How can you get a better grip on your future challenges and opportunities? Spend time with your colleagues exploring the possibilities in your future. Even consider the scary, “unspoken” scenarios:
• What would a “dry cleaner” for cars be — a car wash that uses no water?
• What if a car wash was 100 percent automated?
• What if cars were self-cleaning?
• What would you build now for a future-proof car wash business?
There is a future out there for the professional car wash, but success means greater imagination, more innovation and new collaboration partners.