The End of the Engine As We Know It

A recent headline yelled its message in large, all-caps font: VOLVO ANNOUNCES THE END OF THE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE IN MOVE TO ELECTRIC DRIVE. That week we saw dozens of other articles with similar headlines all based on the same Volvo press release.

Wow! The end of the internal combustion engine (ICE)!

Whenever your editor sees a headline like that he thinks two things: 1) In most cases, the person who writes the headline is not the same as the person who writes the article — the headline writer’s job is to be provocative enough to slow you down so you read the article but they are not always totally accurate in portraying the article’s content — and 2) you always need to read an entire article to get the larger story and you need to even question that by using multiple sources to round out your knowledge.

If you had done that with the Volvo press release, you would know that what Volvo actually announced was a move to electrification across their product line with vehicles including ICE hybrids and full battery electric vehicles (BEVs). That is exactly what most vehicle manufacturers are doing to meet Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards in the USA.

A look at the International Energy Agency’s Blue Map Scenario 2050 study shows their prediction that ICE engines will still be installed in approximately 75 percent of vehicles in 2030. Beyond that point, BEVs and hydrogen-powered vehicles will increase but they will still take another 20 years to become a significant portion of the vehicles on American roads.

The point is this — electric drive vehicles will gain share in the market as battery costs decrease and BEV vehicle range performance increases, but the impact on the auto aftermarket will be a gradual transition handled by aftermarket companies like any other new technology has been handled in the past. And by the way – BEV cars may reduce the powertrain service required over the life of a vehicle, but they contain filters, gaskets, o-rings, oil seals, oil and coolant in addition to the motor and batteries.

Look for a deeper dive into BEV design in a future ICA Tech article. For the rest of this article, we thought we’d list some interesting ICE-related activities that might just lengthen the ICE’s competitiveness in the marketplace.

THE NEXCEL OIL STORAGE AND FILTRATION UNIT

When Castrol introduced their Nexcel oil storage unit in 2015 they had been working with Aston Martin’s race team to develop the system for over two years. Their recent move to hire Aston Martin’s Chief Powertrain Engineer as the new Technology Director for Nexcel signals that they may be ready to take this innovative product mainstream with other vehicle manufacturers.

At the Geneva Auto Show earlier this year, Castrol introduced the next phase of Nexcel, listing several advantages the product offers vehicle manufacturers and aftermarket service providers:
-- Accelerated engine warm-up times
-- Reduced CO2 emissions
-- Active management of oil during engine operation (oil quality and health sensing)
-- A 90-second oil and filter service
-- Improved handling of waste oil during service (about one third of used engine oil is not properly disposed of today)

The Nexcel system is comprised of three components – the oil cell with integrated oil filter, a holding dock mounted in the engine bay and an electric transfer pump. Castrol’s goal is to create a closed oil ecosystem where new vehicles are built with the Nexcel unit, service centers enjoy the simplicity of a plug-and-play oil change and Castrol collects and maintains the cell population in various geographic territories.

Nexcel is targeted at original equipment (OE) producers today, but your editor wonders whether it could be taken into the aftermarket using an adaptor plate for the electric pump that would mount on the existing oil filter housing. Warehouse distributors and quick lube shops may not want to handle multiple SKUs of Nexcel units based on engine size and other operating parameters, but a closed loop collection and cell recycling effort could change that dynamic. We’ll be watching Nexcel’s progress with this interesting product – it could revolutionize the oil change industry.

MAZDA SPARK CONTROLLED COMPRESSION IGNITED GASOLINE ENGINE

Mazda recently announced its SkyActiv-X spark controlled compression-ignition (SPCCI) gasoline engine, which will be available in model year 2019 Mazda cars.
SkyActiv-X uses a spark plug to start the initial flame front in the combustion cylinder but then relies solely on compression of the fuel/air mixture for power generation in a similar fashion to a diesel engine. A 14:1 compression ratio results in fuel
economy gains of 30-40% versus Mazda’s 2008 gasoline engines and also provides significant increases in torque at low to mid engine speeds.

How big is this announcement by Mazda? – Big enough that people are now calling Mazda “The leading ICE innovator on earth” and referring to SkyActiv-X as “The largest engine innovation since the carburetor”. The reason for the effusive reaction is simple – the engine design community has chased the concept of Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) for a very long time in search of the perfect tradeoff of combustion efficiency and power generation. SkyActiv-X is knocking on the HCCI door.

48-VOLT ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS

The increased use of electric and electronic systems on automobiles is now straining the capabilities of 12-volt electrical systems. Most 12-volt alternators put out 2 to 3 kilowatts of electricity for use by powertrain, chassis and body components mbut the continuing increase on electrical demand from electric steering, brake-by-wire, ADAS systems, infotainment features, and various forms of hybridization is now calling for new, higher voltage solutions. Audi and Mercedes-Benz have introduced new cars with 48-volt powertrain systems and other manufacturers are expected to follow their lead in the near future. IHS Automotive has estimated that 95% of mild hybrid (powertrains that use electric assist of the ICE engine or stop/start systems but don’t actually use electric motors to solely propel the vehicle) and 50% of all hybrid cars will use 48-volt systems
by 2025.

While 48-volt systems are often associated with the move to electric-hybrid powertrains, they can actually be one of the main reasons ICE engines will remain in the market long into the future. 48-volt harnesses can be lighter due to lower currents and smaller wire cross sections. Their 10 kW generators can allow electric motors to replace high-parasitic load items like belt-driven water, oil and power steering pumps and air conditioning compressors, which will increase ICE fuel economy. They will also be a key driver of the move to electric-drive turbochargers as the industry increasingly moves to
high performance 4-cylinder engines. Studies have also shown that 48-volt ICE powertrains can supply 70% of the fuel economy performance of high voltage mild hybrids at about 30% of the cost.

Look for several 48-volt high-end vehicles to be introduced in the near future. Their engines will incorporate 48-volt components while their chassis and body electrical demands (lighting, electric windows, fans etc.) will continue to be served by 12-volt systems. Mainstream vehicles will follow this trend in the next five years. Total elimination of the 12-volt system will take a long time, as cost issues are resolved on a component-by-component basis. For the foreseeable future, the 48-volt
transition will be only powertrain related.

You can take a deeper dive into 48-volt technology in this excellent Jalopnick article.