Recent data on American commuters from the U.S. Census Bureau bring to mind the old quote usually attributed to the Marx Brothers: “Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?”

The data came from the American Community Survey, which is conducted annually by the Census Bureau to track changes in the socioeconomic, housing and demographic characteristics of communities across the United States. The data suggest that the percentage of American workers commuting by car has flattened out in recent years after decades of steady, reliable gains.

If true, such a trend could have a big impact on the car wash industry, which relies on the love affair between Americans and their cars to stay in the black. But ask the average American worker if his commute has gotten any shorter or easier in recent years, and you’re likely to be met with a roll of the eyes. Data aside, the morning commute for most workers remains tough, so what gives?

Robert Sinclair, spokesman for the American Automobile Association, said he has seen the U.S. Census data but isn’t quite sold. He points to recent data from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration that show that the average commute is getting slightly longer in duration and that Americans are on pace to drive more miles in 2015 than ever before.

“While the Census data may indicate one thing, data from the Federal Highway Administration indicate something else,” Sinclair said. “For the first seven months of the year, we broke the record for miles driven that was established in 2007 — just before the economy tanked — so it makes sense that as the economy is rebounding, people are driving more. What was really stunning about the data was that for the first four months of this year, Americans drove a record 987.8 billion miles, and that includes the period when most of the country was dealing with the snow and ice of a harsh winter.”

So, which side is right? It’s hard to tell, so let’s take a look at what the numbers really say.

Crunching the numbers

In 2013, about 86 percent of American workers commuted by private vehicle, according to the American Community Survey. That figure was down a tick from 87.9 percent in 2000, but it still was well above the 64 percent figure from 1960 and the 84.1 percent mark from 1980.

Some other key findings from the American Community Survey:

The percentage of U.S. workers driving to work by themselves peaked in 2010 at 76.6 percent, but in 2013, that number was holding steady at 76.4 percent.

The rate of carpooling has dropped in each decade since 1980, when about 19.7 percent of workers carpooled — in part because of the gasoline shortage at that time. In 2013, only about 9.4 percent of American workers carpooled.

About 78 percent of workers living in cities commuted by car in 2013, compared with 89 percent in suburbs and 91 percent in rural areas. The number of urban workers ages 25–29 commuting by car declined about 4 percent from 2006 to 2013, while the number of urban workers in that age group taking public transportation increased from 5.5 percent in 2006 to 7.1 percent in 2013.

But Sinclair thinks those numbers have more to do with the state of the economy than with a broader change in the way Americans get to work.

In early November, the average price for a gallon of gas in the United States was $2.19, according to AAA, down from $3.04 in August 2006. This past October, there were 22 consecutive days of declining gas prices, meaning drivers were paying about 80 cents less per gallon than they were just a year ago.

Lower gas prices encourage motorists to hit the road, and Americans are doing just that. According to the Federal Highway Administration, Americans drove 1.82 trillion miles in the first seven months of 2015, beating the previous record of 1.77 trillion set in July 2007 — before the economic downturn. In July alone, Americans drove 283.7 billion miles, a record for that month, marking the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year increases.

Part of the reason Americans are driving more is that more Americans are working. The unemployment rate stood at just 5.1 percent at the end of September, according to the U.S. Labor Department, after cresting at 10 percent in 2009.

In addition, the automotive shopping website TrueCar Inc. reported Oct. 31 that it expects U.S. new-car sales for 2015 to reach 17.4 million, which would equal the record set in 2000. Sinclair said the improving economy is leading many U.S. consumers to replace older cars that they had held onto longer than expected due to the recession that began in 2008. And U.S. consumers are taking advantage of no-interest and low-interest loans to purchase vehicles that might have previously been outside of their price range, such as sport utility vehicles.

Still hitting the road

The increased rate of car sales, coupled with lower gas prices, is fueling an increase in the number of miles driven, Sinclair said.

“I think it has a lot to do with the economy — with gasoline being relatively cheap and vehicle sales going through the roof,” Sinclair said. “We’re on pace to set a record this year for new-car sales, and when people get new vehicles, they don’t let them sit in the driveway; they get out and drive them. Low- and no-interest rates on new vehicles have been a real boon to new-vehicle sales.”

One factor keeping the rate of commuting by car relatively flat is the work-from-home movement. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 13.4 million people worked at least one day at home per week in 2010, an increase of more than 4 million people, or about 35 percent, over the previous decade. Still, that number was dwarfed by the 128.2 million onsite workers in the United States in 2010.

And other modes of transportation are not having a significant impact on the number of U.S. workers commuting by car. The Census Bureau found that in 2013, 5.2 percent of U.S. workers used public transportation to commute. That figure was up from 4.7 percent in 2000, but it also was down from 5.3 percent in 1990 and 6.4 percent in 1980.

Additionally, 2.8 percent of workers walked to work and 0.6 percent bicycled to work in 2013, compared with 2.9 percent and 0.4 percent in 2000. Moreover, the average commute time, regardless of mode of transportation, remained flat, going from 25.5 minutes in 2000 to 25.8 minutes in 2013, according to the data.

All hail King Car

Quite simply, rumors of the car’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

“If you go around the country, most cities still rely on private motor vehicle transportation,” Sinclair said. “While the work-from-home movement might be increasing, it’s still relatively small. And there are no serious public transportation infrastructure projects that are coming online that would drive the shift from motor vehicles to public transportation. It would be nice if there were. AAA believes in a multimodal approach to transportation. It can’t be all cars. But the car is still king in the United States.”

For AAA, fewer Americans driving to work would mean fewer drivers paying membership dues to the organization. But Sinclair said AAA isn’t worried, and other automotive-related groups like the International Carwash Association shouldn’t be either.

“The overall growth that we’re seeing on a number of different fronts means that people still will be commuting in their motor vehicles — a lot, and for long amounts of time,” Sinclair said. “We expect gas prices to continue to go down, possibly dropping below $2 a gallon this winter. And even though that’s not the summer driving season, that does serve as an incentive for people to drive.”